10 matches left: How the Premier League's relegation battle could finish

A relegation battle is heating up in the Premier League. Here, theScore looks into the remaining 10 matches for each of the bottom nine teams and assesses their chances of staying up.

12. Crystal Palace

It may be a stretch to include Crystal Palace in the relegation battle with 36 points banked after 28 matches, but there are glaring gaps and glitches throughout their squad. Relying on Jordan Ayew for goals is unsustainable, Wigan Athletic’s former midfield pairing of James McCarthy and James McArthur is unsurprisingly creaky seven years later, and the Eagles’ center-backs constantly struggle for fitness.

For now, Palace seem set to finish the campaign with a decent points haul: the Manchester United and Wolverhampton Wanderers matches are among their toughest assignments on paper, but both clubs could be consumed by their pursuits for Europa League glory by that point.

But Roy Hodgson keeping Palace afloat next season – following the inevitability of another summer transfer saga involving Wilfried Zaha – promises to be a much, much harder task barring numerous upgrades to his roster.

Total points = 49

13. Southampton

There’s plenty to build on for Ralph Hasenhuttl.

There are defensive foibles that need ironing out: dealing with long balls, crosses, and two-man frontlines are proving difficult for Southampton. However, Hasenhuttl’s press is organized to the finest detail – strikers harry the center-backs, the wide No. 10s block passing lanes to the full-backs, and the deeper midfielders mop up spillages – and is therefore third-most effective after the division’s top two, Liverpool and Manchester City. Continued schooling in this approach for Moussa Djenepo and his fellow attackers, plus some wise recruitment in the summer, could re-establish Southampton among the Europa League places.

But what about now? The Saints have got a tricky run of fixtures to end the league season, featuring five opponents trying to avoid the drop and both Manchester clubs. Relegation form would be enough to stay above the dotted line, though, with 34 points already on the board.

Total points = 43

14. Watford

Watford might crash back down to earth after that win over Liverpool by losing at Crystal Palace. They’ve also got to deal with the absence of Gerard Deulofeu – a winger who was finally finding some consistency under Nigel Pearson – after he ruptured his ACL.

Yet there’s enough quality leftover to save Watford: Ismaila Sarr appears to be getting used to the rough and tumble of the Premier League, Abdoulaye Doucoure’s recent performances indicate he’s a Champions League-grade midfielder, and captain Troy Deeney is synonymous with the club, sparking raucous Vicarage Road atmospheres with his committed, no-frills playing style.

The summer could be busy. Attacking improvements for Andre Gray and Danny Welbeck are needed, and Craig Dawson alone wasn’t enough to strengthen a susceptible backline. But the workmanlike attitude Pearson has instilled since December bodes well for the future.

Total points = 39

15. Newcastle United

If it wasn’t for Allan Saint-Maximin and, to a lesser extent, Miguel Almiron, watching Newcastle United would be an entirely unpleasant experience. No Premier League team has scored fewer goals than the Magpies’ 24 in 28 matches, and they’re only worse than Burnley for the lowest number of shots fired from inside the penalty box.

Newcastle’s top scorer is Jonjo Shelvey with five tallies; strikers Joelinton, Andy Carroll, Dwight Gayle, and Yoshinori Muto have one goal between them.

It’s not all Steve Bruce’s fault. His predecessor Rafa Benitez’s tactics were excessively conservative and the most critical player in the Spaniard’s scheme, Salomon Rondon, was flogged to the Chinese Super League’s Dalian Yifang last July. Bruce tried to adopt a more attacking game earlier in the season but ultimately failed, so he’s reverted to an ugly, low-scoring approach that should snatch enough points to dodge the bottom three. Just.

Total points = 39

16. Aston Villa

Aston Villa’s journey to last Sunday’s League Cup final means they actually have 11 matches to cross off in the diary, and they should be buoyed by their battling team performance in that 2-1 defeat to Manchester City. For once, they didn’t rely on Jack Grealish to do everything.

Grealish will be crucial over the upcoming weeks, but John McGinn’s return from injury is arguably more important. At times, Villa’s midfield has floundered since the Scot succumbed to a long-term injury before Christmas; even a player as composed and intelligent as Conor Hourihane has been guilty of erraticness and indecision without McGinn buzzing around him.

With McGinn likely back at some point in the next two games, along with the goals of Mbwana Samatta and the reassuring presence of Tyrone Mings, Dean Smith’s outfit could avoid an instant return to the Championship. Aston Villa have shot themselves in the foot with regular amateurish errors, but that performance against City can act as a springboard for the rest of the term.

Total points = 38

17. West Ham United

The systematic dilution of West Ham United’s working-class roots has been disgraceful. Vice-chairman Karren Brady described the club’s old backyard, Upton Park, as having “no culture” soon after the move to London Stadium and proceeded to chase an identity more aligned with the English capital’s business sector. Except the world-class team and facilities promised to supporters are nowhere to be seen.

The atmosphere in Stratford could turn nasty amid fan demonstrations over the season’s final days, providing a difficult atmosphere for players to perform and earn enough points to ensure West Ham’s survival. There is rarely a convenient time to protest, though, and supporters should be backed in their campaign against the clubs’ rudderless stewardship. Flirting with relegation could be a wake-up call for Gold, Sullivan, and Brady, or, even better, enough to scare them off.

West Ham has some talent to pull them over the line in spite of the off-field unrest. Jarrod Bowen is a skillful attacker who can produce goals despite being starved of service, as demonstrated during a lot of his time at Hull City. Michail Antonio, Felipe Anderson, Robert Snodgrass, Manuel Lanzini, Pablo Fornals, and Andriy Yarmolenko are blessed with differing attributes and each can bewilder Premier League defenses on their day. David Moyes’ defense is pretty bad but at least Issa Diop is around.

Total points = 37

18. Brighton & Hove Albion

Graham Potter is a thoughtful tactician and the turnaround he oversaw during the opening matches of this season was a radical departure from the tired football over the final season of Chris Hughton’s reign. It says a lot for Potter’s communication skills that his adventurous style of play was adopted so quickly by his squad.

So, this survival bid may just go down to personnel. Do Brighton & Hove Albion have enough game-changers to stay in this division? Is it just down to Neal Maupay to score goals, or can Glenn Murray, Alireza Jahanbakhsh, or another frontman step up? Chances are being created and there should be enough defensive solidity from Lewis Dunk among others, it’s just the goals aren’t going in: Brighton struck 23 shots against Crystal Palace last Saturday but didn’t score.

The remaining matches for Brighton aren’t easy, either. The reverse fixtures of those 10 outings yielded only two wins and under a goal a game for the Seagulls, and the back-to-back visits from Liverpool and Manchester City are downright cruel. They need to target two wins before those tussles potentially shatter their confidence.

Total points = 35

19. Bournemouth

Bournemouth won 3-1 at Southampton in September to temporarily move into third place in the Premier League. That feels like a very long time ago.

The return meeting between the Cherries and the Saints on the penultimate weekend could relegate Eddie Howe’s side into the Championship. And, even if Bournemouth take a full complement of points from their south coast rivals in that game, it’s difficult to envisage many more wins for the club over its demanding schedule to conclude the league campaign.

Bournemouth’s poor signings, lack of variety to their attacking movements, and gradual disintegration of the spine which supported their rise up the leagues have taken their toll. What’s left is a club built completely in Howe’s image, but a manager who probably outgrew Bournemouth a few years ago. The relationship has gone stale at Dean Court.

Total points = 35

20. Norwich City

Norwich City have been an excellent addition to the Premier League. Teemu Pukki’s early season goal-fest delighted neutrals, Todd Cantwell was fairly disappointing in the Championship but has looked a wholly different proposition in the first rung, and there are genuinely gifted players elsewhere in the lineup, like Max Aarons and Emiliano Buendia.

Also, the style and delicate voice of promising manager Daniel Farke was a source of fascination and bemusement for many Premier League supporters.

But Norwich are bottom, six points adrift of safety and with some daunting fixtures against fellow relegation candidates on the horizon. It’s a poor state of affairs when bringing Grant Hanley back into the lineup offers goalkeeper Tim Krul better protection, but Farke just has to roll with it – survival is at stake. Last weekend’s huge three points against Leicester must count as the beginning of the Canaries’ great escape, and teams have got themselves out of much worse predicaments in the past.

Total points = 33